Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Saud University Stadium to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Nassr (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Al-Nassr, 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Al-Qadisiyah FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 53% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.18 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / defence 0.834 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.698 / defence 0.550. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 1.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.550 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.698 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Nassr games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 19% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 19% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Nassr 1.18 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / def 0.834 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.698 / def 0.550 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 19% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.42) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.55), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.70x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
19%
5.27
25%
4.07
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.26
2.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
5.27
19%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
2%
42.60
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 2.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr come into this having played 45 games, going 37W 3D 5L for 2.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 45 outings (31W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.53 PPG for Al-Nassr against 2.27 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Nassr's home form reads 21W 1D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.43 points per game from 23 outings (18W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.49 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 37W 3D 5L in their last 45 games (2.53 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 5L in their last 45 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.78 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 52%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Nassr and 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Nassr's games and 61% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.