Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Al-Hazm managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 51% versus Al-Hazm 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.23 xG and Al-Hazm 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / defence 0.756 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Al-Nassr games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Hazm 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Nassr 2.23 / Al-Hazm 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / def 0.756 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Hazm xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 May 2027 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 62% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.33) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (1.03x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.52
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.29
1.06
Al-Hazm xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
2%
60.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.06 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 32W 2D 5L from 39 games, a 2.51 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 16L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 17W 1D 1L from 19 games — 2.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 32W 2D 5L in their last 39 games (2.51 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.74 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 1-5 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al-Hazm 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Nassr and 58% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Nassr's matches and 58% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.