Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 5 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 0W, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.42 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / defence 0.719 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.252 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.154. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad FC games / 41 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.57. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.42 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / def 0.719 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.252 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 5 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.20x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.25x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.75
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.04 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 5L from 40 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 4L across 40 games — 2.15 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.22 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 2.15 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 15W 3D 2L from 20 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 12W 7D 1L across 20 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.05 scored and 0.95 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 games (2.22 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 25W 11D 4L in their last 40 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 30%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 55% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.42 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.72 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 28%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.22 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.