Al-Ittihad FC 5-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Adalah in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Adalah's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Adalah have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Adalah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 33% versus Al-Adalah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al-Adalah 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.27 xG and Al-Adalah 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.168 / defence 0.686 | Al-Adalah attack 0.745 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.158. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 15 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Adalah 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Adalah 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al-Adalah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Adalah 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.27 / Al-Adalah 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.168 / def 0.686 | Al-Adalah attack 0.745 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Al-Adalah xG
40%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Ittihad FC 5 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 76% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.17) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.74x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.12
8%
12.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.87
0.59
Al-Adalah xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
12.42
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
42%
2.39
1%
120.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.59 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 15 games, going 10W 4D 1L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Adalah sit at 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Al-Adalah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Adalah have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.67 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 10W 4D 1L in their last 15 games (2.27 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 5-0 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Al-Adalah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 14%, Al-Adalah 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 57% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Adalah in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 57% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 57% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Adalah 5-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.27 xG and Al-Adalah 0.59 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Al-Adalah attack 0.74 / defence 1.37, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Adalah 8%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 40%, Al-Adalah 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.