Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0% | Al Wehda Club 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0% | Al Wehda Club 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.285 / defence 0.864 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.637 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.096. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 3 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Al Wehda Club 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al Wehda Club's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 / Al Wehda Club 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.285 / def 0.864 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.637 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Al Wehda Club xG
35%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.85
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.60
Al Wehda Club xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
3%
30.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.60 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0% for Al Wehda Club.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 33%; Al Wehda Club in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Wehda Club 3-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.60 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.86 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 15%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0%, Al Wehda Club 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al Wehda Club shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.