Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 17 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.09 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.347 / defence 0.911 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.080 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.442. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.85. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.09 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.347 / def 0.911 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.080 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 17 September 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.35x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.08x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.68
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
3%
31.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.42 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 26W 9D 0L from 35 games, a 2.49 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 11L across 35 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 13W 4D 0L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 26W 9D 0L in their last 35 games (2.49 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 59% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.