Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 December 2021 at 13:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 0L across 5 games at King Fahd International Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at King Fahd International Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% and Al-Fayha 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Fayha 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 xG and Al-Fayha 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.080 / defence 1.050 | Al-Fayha attack 0.763 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.015. Data: 10 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 12 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 4.76. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Fayha 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 / Al-Fayha 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.080 / def 1.050 | Al-Fayha attack 0.763 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Fayha xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 13:40 on Friday 10 December 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 10/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.73
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.26
0.81
Al-Fayha xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.81 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 5D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.60 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%, Al-Fayha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 40% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 40% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hilal Saudi FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha finished level at 0-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 xG and Al-Fayha 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 21%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%, Al-Fayha 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.