Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 February 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.470 / defence 0.819 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.911 / defence 0.594. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.407. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.470 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.594 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 52 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.470 / def 0.819 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.911 / def 0.594 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.47) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.59), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.51
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.05
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.05 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 52 games, going 37W 10D 5L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.12 PPG from 52 outings (34W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.33 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 20W 3D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 2.00 points per game from 25 outings (16W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.96 scored and 0.92 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 37W 10D 5L in their last 52 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 34W 8D 10L in their last 52 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.52 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hilal Saudi FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.05 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.47 / defence 0.82 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.91 / defence 0.59, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.