Al-Hazm 2-3 Al Baten – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 49%, yet in-form Al Baten provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Baten travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 May 2022 at 18:25 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Al-Hazm have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Baten — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Baten away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Al Baten's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 0 for Al Baten and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2021, ended Al-Hazm 0–0 Al Baten — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Al Baten in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 33% versus Al Baten 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 37% | Al Baten 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al Baten 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.877 / defence 1.133 | Al Baten attack 0.601 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.264. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Al Baten's attack rating of 0.601 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 27 games and Al Baten's last 27.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.05 | Draw 3.61 | Al Baten 4.24. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Baten (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Baten's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Baten 40% (last 10 away games).

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