Damac 0-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Damac have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Damac) versus 1.40 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Damac, 0 for Al-Fateh and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 10.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2021, ended 5–5 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 10.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al-Fateh 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 41% | Al-Fateh 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.055 / defence 1.278 | Al-Fateh attack 0.712 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.296. Data: 27 Damac games / 27 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 39% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 34%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al-Fateh 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 39% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Damac 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.055 / def 1.278 | Al-Fateh attack 0.712 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Damac (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 0 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.05) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.68
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Damac xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Damac and 1.18 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 11L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Damac's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.92 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Fateh 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Damac and 23% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 31%; Al-Fateh in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 38% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Damac's recent games and 23% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Damac 0-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against Al-Fateh attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 39% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 34%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 41%, Al-Fateh 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.