Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Kholood at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC host Al Kholood at in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 October 2026 at 13:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Kholood — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Kholood — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 50% and Al Kholood 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Kholood 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.88 xG and Al Kholood 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al Kholood attack 0.980 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 22% | Draw 34% | Al Kholood 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Al Kholood 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Kholood 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 22% | Draw 34% | Al Kholood 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.88 / Al Kholood 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al Kholood attack 0.980 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al Kholood xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 13:40 on Thursday 15 October 2026.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 22% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
22%
4.52
34%
2.91
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.18
1.30
Al Kholood xG
4.52
22%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.7 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.30 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 3D 3L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Kholood's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Kholood's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 33%, Al Kholood at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Faisaly FC and 33% for Al Kholood.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 100% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.