Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma’a Sport City plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 11 September 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0W 2D 1L at Al Majma’a Sport City — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Ittihad FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.63 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.926 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 16% | Draw 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 6.25 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.08. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Majma’a Sport City • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 16% | Draw 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.63 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.926 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Ittihad FC xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Al Majma’a Sport City.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.93x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
16%
6.18
36%
2.80
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
1.86
1.23
Al-Ittihad FC xG
6.18
16%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 19.2 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.23 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 3D 3L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.83 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 (2.33 PPG).
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 50% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.