Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al-Hazm travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 1.60 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Hazm 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG and Al-Hazm 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.927 / defence 1.154 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Data: 43 Al-Ettifaq games / 43 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Hazm 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.39 / Al-Hazm 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.927 / def 1.154 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Hazm xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
33%
3.05
32%
3.11
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.83
1.44
Al-Hazm xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.44 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 18W 11D 14L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 18L across 43 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.51 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 8D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Hazm 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ettifaq) and 57% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Hazm in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 62% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 57% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.