Nizhny Novgorod 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod host Spartak Moscow at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod than their overall form suggests.
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Spartak Moscow's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nizhny Novgorod, 2 for Spartak Moscow and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nizhny Novgorod trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Spartak Moscow trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 43% versus Spartak Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 46% | Spartak Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.16 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.102 / defence 1.429 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.068 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.251. Spartak Moscow's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Nizhny Novgorod games / 56 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 22% | Spartak Moscow 55%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Spartak Moscow 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Spartak Moscow (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | Spartak Moscow 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 22% | Spartak Moscow 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.16 / Spartak Moscow 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.102 / def 1.429 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.068 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Spartak Moscow xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 23% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 2 | Spartak Moscow 2W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
23%
4.38
22%
4.45
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
3.07
1.91
Spartak Moscow xG
4.38
23%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
29.52
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.91 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 17W 10D 29L from 56 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 14L across 56 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 12W 5D 11L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.73 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 17W 10D 29L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.46 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spartak Moscow go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Spartak Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
6
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 46%, Spartak Moscow 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 50% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 29% of games; Spartak Moscow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 61% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 50% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nizhny Novgorod's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod and Spartak Moscow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.16 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.91 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.10 / defence 1.43 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 22% | Spartak Moscow 55%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 46%, Spartak Moscow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.