Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 4W 4D 2L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Krylia Sovetov's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Nizhny Novgorod's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, Nizhny Novgorod 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Nizhny Novgorod winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 59% versus Nizhny Novgorod 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | Nizhny Novgorod 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 2.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.861 / defence 0.858 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.727 / defence 1.627. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.328. Nizhny Novgorod bring a strong defensive rating of 1.627 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Krylia Sovetov games / 59 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Nizhny Novgorod 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Nizhny Novgorod 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Krylia Sovetov 2.03 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.861 / def 0.858 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.727 / def 1.627 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 65% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (5 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.86x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.73x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
65%
1.53
20%
4.94
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.86
0.83
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
53.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.83 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 15D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 17W 11D 31L from 59 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.05 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 4D 19L from 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 17W 11D 31L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.54 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won 5-2 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
4
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 43% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 29% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Nizhny Novgorod?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 39% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 43% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 2.03 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.83 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.73 / defence 1.63, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 65% | Draw 20% | Nizhny Novgorod 14%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, Nizhny Novgorod 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.22 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.