Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lokomotiv (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Lokomotiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv meet at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's home record at Solidarnost Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lokomotiv's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lokomotiv arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 2 for Lokomotiv and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lokomotiv — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus Lokomotiv 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 46% | Lokomotiv 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.83 xG and Lokomotiv 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.705 / defence 1.109 | Lokomotiv attack 1.339 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.443. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lokomotiv's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lokomotiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Krylia Sovetov games / 56 Lokomotiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 66%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | Lokomotiv 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Lokomotiv (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lokomotiv as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Lokomotiv 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.83 / Lokomotiv 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.705 / def 1.109 | Lokomotiv attack 1.339 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Lokomotiv xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Lokomotiv.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 12% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 66% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 1 | Lokomotiv 2W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Lokomotiv (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.70x the league average against Lokomotiv's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lokomotiv's attack (1.34x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
12%
8.41
22%
4.57
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.97
2.14
Lokomotiv xG
8.41
12%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
1%
71.63
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 2.14 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 12D 26L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokomotiv's form line: 23W 14D 19L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.48 for Lokomotiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 9W 9D 9L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.57 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Lokomotiv away?
Lokomotiv's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.30 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lokomotiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
5
Draws
3
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Lokomotiv have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 48%, Lokomotiv 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Krylia Sovetov) and 56% (Lokomotiv).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 30% of games; Lokomotiv in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Lokomotiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 52% of Lokomotiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 56% of Lokomotiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Lokomotiv in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.83 xG and Lokomotiv 2.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lokomotiv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Lokomotiv attack 1.34 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 12% | Draw 22% | Lokomotiv 66%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 46%, Lokomotiv 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.18 PPG, Lokomotiv 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.