Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Solidarnost Samara Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Akhmat (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.60 for Akhmat — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, Akhmat 4W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 56% versus Akhmat 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | Akhmat 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.37 xG and Akhmat 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.847 / defence 1.075 | Akhmat attack 0.866 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.281. Data: 45 Krylia Sovetov games / 45 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 33% | Akhmat 29%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Akhmat 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Akhmat 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 33% | Akhmat 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.37 / Akhmat 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.847 / def 1.075 | Akhmat attack 0.866 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Akhmat xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 38% chance of winning, Akhmat a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Record (7 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 4W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Akhmat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.87x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.04
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.57
1.19
Akhmat xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.19 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 14W 11D 20L from 45 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 23L across 45 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 0.98 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.02 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 11D 23L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.50 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 54%, Akhmat 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Krylia Sovetov) and 41% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games; Akhmat in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 36% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 41% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Krylia Sovetov edge out Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Akhmat 2-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.37 xG and Akhmat 1.19 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Akhmat attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 38% | Draw 33% | Akhmat 29%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, Akhmat 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.18 PPG, Akhmat 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.