Akhmat vs Fakel – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akhmat at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Akhmat and Fakel meet at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat at Akhmat-Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Akhmat, 0.50 for Fakel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Akhmat 1W, Fakel 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 54% versus Fakel 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 38% | Fakel 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.64 xG and Fakel 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.075 / defence 1.008 | Fakel attack 0.767 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.247. Data: 43 Akhmat games / 13 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 51% | Draw 29% | Fakel 20%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Fakel 5.00. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Fakel 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 51% | Draw 29% | Fakel 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Akhmat 1.64 / Fakel 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.075 / def 1.008 | Fakel attack 0.767 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Fakel xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Fakel kick off?
Akhmat vs Fakel is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Akhmat-Arena.
Where is Akhmat vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Fakel part of?
Akhmat vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 51% chance of winning, Fakel a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Akhmat and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Fakel?
Record (7 meetings): Akhmat 1W | Draws 3 | Fakel 3W.
What form are Akhmat and Fakel in?
Akhmat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fakel (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.07x the league average against Fakel's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.77x) against Akhmat's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Fakel xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
4%
26.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.96 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Akhmat come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fakel sit at 0.46 PPG from 13 outings (1W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Akhmat against 0.46 for Fakel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Akhmat's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fakel have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Akhmat are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Fakel in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Fakel have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Fakel away?
Akhmat's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.33 PPG; Fakel away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Akhmat
3
Draws
3
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Fakel?
From 7 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 1, Fakel have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Fakel 0-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Fakel?
Fakel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Fakel see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 67%, Fakel 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Akhmat) and 50% (Fakel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Akhmat have failed to score in 33% of games; Fakel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Fakel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Akhmat's games and 50% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Akhmat's matches and 50% of Fakel's.
Do Akhmat and Fakel tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fakel in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.