Vizela 0-4 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Porto at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs FC Porto encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus FC Porto in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 19 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Vizela (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 1W 4D 1L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Porto have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Porto have gone 5W 2D 0L from 7 away fixtures this term (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC Porto are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vizela register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, FC Porto in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Porto half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vizela 69% and FC Porto 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 46% | FC Porto 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.82 xG and FC Porto 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.795 / defence 1.017 | FC Porto attack 1.215 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.343. Vizela's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Porto have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Vizela games / 14 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 17% | Draw 27% | FC Porto 56%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | FC Porto 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 83% | FC Porto 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 17% | Draw 27% | FC Porto 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Vizela 0.82 / FC Porto 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.795 / def 1.017 | FC Porto attack 1.215 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Porto xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs FC Porto kick off?
Vizela vs FC Porto kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs FC Porto?
Vizela 0 - 4 FC Porto.
Where is Vizela vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs FC Porto part of?
Vizela vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 17% chance of winning, FC Porto a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vizela and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and FC Porto?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and FC Porto in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. FC Porto (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.80) and FC Porto's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Porto's attack (1.22x) against Vizela's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
17%
5.88
27%
3.68
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.48
1.66
FC Porto xG
5.88
17%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
30.94
25%
4.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Vizela and 1.66 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs FC Porto?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 7D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.69 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vizela's home form reads 1W 4D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 2.33 points per game from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.46 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Porto in 62%.
Defensively: FC Porto in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 2W 7D 4L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Vizela or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, FC Porto in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Porto go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 0-4 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Porto — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
0
Draws
6
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and FC Porto?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, FC Porto have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when FC Porto 4-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Vizela, 67% for FC Porto — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Vizela) and 67% (FC Porto).
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play FC Porto?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Vizela's games and 67% of FC Porto's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Vizela's recent games and 67% of FC Porto's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and FC Porto tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Vizela 0-4 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.82 xG and FC Porto 1.66 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vizela fell 0.8 short of their projected output. FC Porto outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against FC Porto attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 17% | Draw 27% | FC Porto 56%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 46%, FC Porto 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Porto's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.