Tondela 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SC Braga (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tondela face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tondela host SC Braga at Estádio João Cardoso in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tondela stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela at Estádio João Cardoso this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 home games — 0.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Braga have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Tondela.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with SC Braga winning.
It is worth noting that SC Braga have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Tondela in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 35% versus SC Braga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 59% | SC Braga 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 0.98 xG and SC Braga 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.751 / defence 1.194 | SC Braga attack 1.284 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.255. Tondela's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Tondela games / 51 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 19% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 59%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | SC Braga 1.69. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tondela 38% | SC Braga 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 19% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Tondela 0.98 / SC Braga 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.751 / def 1.194 | SC Braga attack 1.284 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.92
SC Braga xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs SC Braga kick off?
Tondela vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs SC Braga?
Tondela 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Tondela vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs SC Braga part of?
Tondela vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 19% chance of winning, SC Braga a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tondela and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and SC Braga?
Record (3 meetings): Tondela 0W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 3W.
What form are Tondela and SC Braga in?
Tondela (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tondela's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Tondela's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
19%
5.33
22%
4.58
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.90
1.92
SC Braga xG
5.33
19%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
36.52
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Tondela and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Tondela and 1.92 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tondela's recent record stands at 3W 3D 11L from 17 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 4L across 17 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tondela heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tondela have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tondela are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.82 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.62 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when SC Braga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tondela's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Tondela
0
Draws
4
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and SC Braga?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, SC Braga have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Tondela 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tondela see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 38%, SC Braga 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tondela) and 62% (SC Braga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tondela have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Tondela's games and 75% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tondela vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Tondela's matches and 62% of SC Braga's.
Do Tondela and SC Braga tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Tondela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.98 xG and SC Braga 1.92 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against SC Braga attack 1.28 / defence 0.91, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 19% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 59%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 59%, SC Braga 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.