Nacional 0-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nacional face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nacional welcome Boavista to Estádio da Madeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nacional stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Nacional's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Boavista — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Boavista have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Nacional) versus 0.60 (Boavista). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Nacional trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Boavista trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 20% of Nacional's games and 30% of Boavista's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nacional 20% | Boavista 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nacional 1.30 xG and Boavista 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nacional attack 0.899 / defence 1.238 | Boavista attack 1.039 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.157. Nacional's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boavista's projected output up. Data: built from Nacional's last 10 games and Boavista's last 45.
Result probabilities: Nacional 33% | Draw 25% | Boavista 42%. Fair-value odds: Nacional 3.02 | Draw 3.96 | Boavista 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boavista at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nacional's last 4 home games and Boavista's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Nacional 25% (last 4 home games) | Boavista 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nacional vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nacional 33% | Draw 25% | Boavista 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Nacional 1.30 / Boavista 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Nacional attack 0.899 / def 1.238 | Boavista attack 1.039 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Boavista (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nacional xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Boavista xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nacional vs Boavista FAQs
What time does Nacional vs Boavista kick off?
Nacional vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Nacional vs Boavista?
Nacional 0 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Nacional vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Nacional vs Boavista part of?
Nacional vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Nacional vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Nacional a 33% chance of winning, Boavista a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nacional and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nacional vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nacional's attack rating (0.90) and Boavista's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Nacional's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nacional's last 10 games and Boavista's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.96
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nacional xG
Total xG
2.79
1.49
Boavista xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nacional vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nacional vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nacional and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nacional and 1.49 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nacional vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nacional's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 6L across 10 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nacional on 0.80 PPG, Boavista on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nacional have managed 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Nacional are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Boavista's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across their last 4 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Boavista travel well.
The Goals Picture
Nacional are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 0.60 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nacional have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Boavista in 30%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nacional
Blended
Boavista
Blended
Nacional (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nacional
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Nacional vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are Nacional and Boavista in coming into this match?
Nacional have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Boavista have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nacional at home or Boavista away?
Nacional's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nacional at home: 1.50 PPG; Boavista away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nacional or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Boavista in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nacional
1
Draws
0
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Nacional vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Boavista?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nacional have won 1, Boavista have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nacional and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Boavista 0-1 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between Nacional and Boavista?
Nacional have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nacional 25%, Boavista 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Nacional and 75% for Boavista. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nacional keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nacional home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nacional vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nacional and Boavista matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Nacional's recent matches and 75% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nacional and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nacional's matches and 75% of Boavista's.
Do Nacional and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Nacional's recent matches and 75% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nacional and Boavista finished level at 0-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.30 xG and Boavista 1.49 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nacional fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Boavista landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Boavista attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nacional 33% | Draw 25% | Boavista 42%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 20%, Boavista 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nacional's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boavista's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nacional 0.80 PPG, Boavista 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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