GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIL Vicente face Nacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Nacional at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
GIL Vicente — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nacional stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Nacional have posted 0W 2D 4L from their last 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIL Vicente at 0.70 PPG versus Nacional's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nacional in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 64% versus Nacional 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 64% | Nacional 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.58 xG and Nacional 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.068 / defence 1.032 | Nacional attack 0.531 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.108. Nacional's attack rating of 0.531 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 46 games and Nacional's last 11.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.64 | Draw 4.03 | Nacional 7.12. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Nacional's last 6 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 home games) | Nacional 17% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Nacional | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG GIL Vicente 1.58 / Nacional 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.068 / def 1.032 | Nacional attack 0.531 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Nacional xG
36%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Nacional FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Nacional kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Nacional kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
GIL Vicente 2 - 1 Nacional.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Nacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Nacional part of?
GIL Vicente vs Nacional is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 61% chance of winning, Nacional a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both GIL Vicente and Nacional will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will GIL Vicente vs Nacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.07) and Nacional's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nacional's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 46 games and Nacional's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.03
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.19
0.61
Nacional xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
3%
34.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Nacional Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Nacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.61 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Nacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Nacional's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 0.91 PPG, Nacional on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nacional have gone 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nacional's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Nacional are on 0.55 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Nacional in 18%.
Defensively: Nacional in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Nacional
Blended
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Nacional (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Blended
Nacional
Blended
❓ GIL Vicente vs Nacional Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Nacional in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Nacional have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Nacional away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.60 PPG; Nacional away: 0.20 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Nacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Nacional in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2025, when GIL Vicente won Nacional 0-3 GIL Vicente.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Nacional specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
0
Nacional
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Nacional H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Nacional?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 4, Nacional have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Nacional last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Nacional?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — GIL Vicente 60% BTTS, Nacional 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for GIL Vicente and 0% for Nacional.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nacional in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Nacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Nacional Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Nacional matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 0% of Nacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Nacional matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 0% of Nacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Nacional matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 60% of Nacional's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Nacional 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Nacional 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.58 xG and Nacional 0.61 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Nacional attack 0.53 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 61% | Draw 25% | Nacional 14%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 64%, Nacional 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Nacional's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 0.91 PPG, Nacional 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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