Famalicao 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Famalicao host Santa Clara at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Famalicao — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Famalicao have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Famalicao) versus 1.00 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1, Santa Clara 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 54% versus Santa Clara 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 57% | Santa Clara 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.43 xG and Santa Clara 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.975 / defence 1.214 | Santa Clara attack 0.903 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.103. Data: 37 Famalicao games / 37 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 32%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Santa Clara 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 50% | Santa Clara 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Famalicao 1.43 / Santa Clara 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.975 / def 1.214 | Santa Clara attack 0.903 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Santa Clara xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Santa Clara kick off?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Famalicao vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Santa Clara part of?
Famalicao vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 42% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Famalicao and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.97) and Santa Clara's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.86
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Santa Clara xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.21 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 13D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.11 PPG from 37 outings (9W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.08 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Famalicao's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.56 points per game from 18 outings (1W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.08 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Santa Clara away?
Famalicao's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.22 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Famalicao's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
1
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Santa Clara have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Santa Clara 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Santa Clara?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 56%, Santa Clara 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Famalicao and 61% for Santa Clara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 33% of games; Santa Clara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Famalicao's games and 61% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Famalicao's matches and 61% of Santa Clara's.
Do Famalicao and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.43 xG and Santa Clara 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Santa Clara attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 32%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 57%, Santa Clara 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.08 PPG, Santa Clara 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.