Chaves 0-3 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Porto (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chaves face FC Porto.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Chaves welcome FC Porto to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, FC Porto have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Porto's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Porto — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chaves register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Porto in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
FC Porto have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Chaves's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with FC Porto winning.
It is worth noting that FC Porto have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Porto in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 54% versus FC Porto 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 48% | FC Porto 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.16 xG and FC Porto 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.922 / defence 1.435 | FC Porto attack 1.144 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.273. Data: 65 Chaves games / 65 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 20% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 59%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | FC Porto 1.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 80% | FC Porto 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 20% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Chaves 1.16 / FC Porto 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.922 / def 1.435 | FC Porto attack 1.144 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
2.09
FC Porto xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs FC Porto kick off?
Chaves vs FC Porto kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs FC Porto?
Chaves 0 - 3 FC Porto.
Where is Chaves vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs FC Porto part of?
Chaves vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 20% chance of winning, FC Porto a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chaves and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and FC Porto?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 0 | FC Porto 3W.
What form are Chaves and FC Porto in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FC Porto (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.92x the league average against FC Porto's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Porto's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
20%
4.90
21%
4.79
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.25
2.09
FC Porto xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
3%
39.65
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Chaves and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chaves and 2.09 for FC Porto, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs FC Porto?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 17W 18D 30L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Porto's form line: 46W 10D 9L from 65 games, 2.28 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chaves.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L).
On the road, FC Porto have gone 21W 6D 5L from 32 away games — 2.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.00 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
FC Porto
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 17W 18D 30L in their last 65 games (1.06 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 46W 10D 9L in their last 65 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.12 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Chaves or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Porto in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and FC Porto runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Porto have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when FC Porto won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting FC Porto specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chaves
0
Draws
4
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and FC Porto?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 0, FC Porto have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Chaves 0-3 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 69%, FC Porto 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chaves) and 44% (FC Porto).
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play FC Porto?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Chaves's games and 50% of FC Porto's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chaves's recent games and 44% of FC Porto's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and FC Porto tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Chaves 0-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.16 xG and FC Porto 2.09 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Porto outscored their 2.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.44 against FC Porto attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 20% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 59%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 48%, FC Porto 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Porto's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.