Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Casa Pia take on Chaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Casa Pia welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chaves's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 1.20 PPG, Chaves 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 2 for Chaves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 28% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Chaves in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 41% versus Chaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | Chaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.71 xG and Chaves 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.546 / defence 0.854 | Chaves attack 0.661 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.286. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.546 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Casa Pia games / 64 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 31% | Draw 38% | Chaves 31%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Chaves 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Casa Pia's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.44 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 30% | Chaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 31% | Draw 38% | Chaves 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Casa Pia 0.71 / Chaves 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.546 / def 0.854 | Chaves attack 0.661 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Chaves xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Chaves kick off?
Casa Pia vs Chaves kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Casa Pia 3 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Casa Pia vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Chaves part of?
Casa Pia vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 31% chance of winning, Chaves a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Casa Pia and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Chaves?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Chaves 2W.
What form are Casa Pia and Chaves in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Chaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-0 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
38%
2.64
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.44
0.73
Chaves xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.79
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.8 | 17.3 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.73 for Chaves, a combined total of 1.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 16D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (17W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.14 PPG, Chaves on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 8W 10D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Chaves have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (8W 9D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Chaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Chaves in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 19W 16D 29L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while Chaves have gone 17W 18D 29L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Chaves away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.06 PPG; Chaves away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chaves in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Casa Pia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
0
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Chaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 28% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 38%, Chaves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Casa Pia and 38% for Chaves.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 44% of games; Chaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 38% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Casa Pia's recent games and 38% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Chaves tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 28% of their recent matches, Chaves in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Chaves 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.71 xG and Chaves 0.73 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.55 / defence 0.85 against Chaves attack 0.66 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 31% | Draw 38% | Chaves 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 41%, Chaves 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chaves's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.14 PPG, Chaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.