Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Casa Pia face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Casa Pia, 2 for Benfica and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 28% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 41% versus Benfica 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 39% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.87 xG and Benfica 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.578 / defence 0.916 | Benfica attack 1.260 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.206. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Casa Pia games / 59 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 23% | Draw 29% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 2.04. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 20% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 23% | Draw 29% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Casa Pia 0.87 / Benfica 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.578 / def 0.916 | Benfica attack 1.260 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Benfica xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Benfica kick off?
Casa Pia vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Casa Pia vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Benfica part of?
Casa Pia vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 23% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Casa Pia and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.58x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
23%
4.40
29%
3.49
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.26
1.39
Benfica xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.69
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.39 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 14D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.51 PPG from 59 outings (47W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 8W 9D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.31 points per game from 29 outings (21W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.39 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Benfica have gone 47W 7D 5L in their last 59 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.14 PPG; Benfica away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Benfica in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Benfica won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 28% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Casa Pia 38% BTTS, Benfica 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Casa Pia) and 55% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Benfica in 59%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 31% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Casa Pia's recent games and 55% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Benfica tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 28% of their recent matches, Benfica in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.87 xG and Benfica 1.39 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.58 / defence 0.92 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 23% | Draw 29% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 39%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.