Casa Pia 1-1 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs AVS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Casa Pia welcome AVS to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
AVS — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 1.30 PPG, AVS 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AVS in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 43% versus AVS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 29% | AVS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.43 xG and AVS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.869 / defence 1.000 | AVS attack 0.761 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.088. Data: 46 Casa Pia games / 12 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 27% | AVS 22%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | AVS 4.55. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 50% | AVS 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 27% | AVS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Casa Pia 1.43 / AVS 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.869 / def 1.000 | AVS attack 0.761 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
AVS xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs AVS kick off?
Casa Pia vs AVS kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs AVS?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 AVS.
Where is Casa Pia vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs AVS part of?
Casa Pia vs AVS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 51% chance of winning, AVS a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Casa Pia and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and AVS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and AVS in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. AVS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.87) and AVS's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.70
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.26
0.83
AVS xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.83 for AVS, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AVS's form line: 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.14 PPG, AVS on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, AVS have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.93 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and AVS in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while AVS have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or AVS away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.33 PPG; AVS away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting AVS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and AVS?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, AVS have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Casa Pia 3-3 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and AVS?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 50%, AVS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Casa Pia) and 67% (AVS).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 33% of games; AVS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play AVS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Casa Pia's games and 67% of AVS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Casa Pia's recent games and 67% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and AVS tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AVS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and AVS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and AVS finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.43 xG and AVS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against AVS attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 51% | Draw 27% | AVS 22%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 29%, AVS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
AVS's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.14 PPG, AVS 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.