Benfica 2-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Benfica welcome Arouca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arouca have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 7 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Arouca, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus Arouca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 64% | Arouca 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.49 xG and Arouca 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.738 / defence 0.866 | Arouca attack 1.079 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.171. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.738 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Benfica games / 62 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 68% | Draw 17% | Arouca 15%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Arouca 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Arouca 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 68% | Draw 17% | Arouca 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 61% | xG Benfica 2.49 / Arouca 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.738 / def 0.866 | Arouca attack 1.079 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Benfica (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Arouca xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Arouca kick off?
Benfica vs Arouca kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Benfica 2 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Benfica vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Arouca part of?
Benfica vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 68% chance of winning, Arouca a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Benfica and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
Record (7 meetings): Benfica 7W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Benfica and Arouca in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Arouca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.74x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.49. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
68%
1.48
17%
5.75
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.58
1.09
Arouca xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
8%
12.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
1%
80.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Benfica and 1.09 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 47W 7D 8L from 62 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 27L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 28W 2D 1L from 31 games — 2.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.31 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Arouca in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 47W 7D 8L in their last 62 games (2.39 PPG), while Arouca have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Arouca away?
Benfica's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.77 PPG; Arouca away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Benfica or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Arouca in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Arouca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Arouca have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Arouca?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 42%, Arouca 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Benfica and 68% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Arouca in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Benfica's recent matches and 61% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Benfica's matches and 68% of Arouca's.
Do Benfica and Arouca tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Arouca in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica and Arouca finished level at 2-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.49 xG and Arouca 1.09 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.74 / defence 0.87 against Arouca attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 68% | Draw 17% | Arouca 15%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 64%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Arouca's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.