Arouca vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arouca (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arouca face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Arouca versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 7W 1D 2L at — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Arouca. A 0.70 PPG lead over GIL Vicente (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Arouca, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against GIL Vicente — a 6D 0W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Arouca winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arouca and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 53% versus GIL Vicente 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 66% | GIL Vicente 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.59 xG and GIL Vicente 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.347 / defence 0.895 | GIL Vicente attack 0.793 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.283. Arouca carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Arouca games / 37 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 53% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 22%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 4.55. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 70% | GIL Vicente 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 53% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Arouca 1.59 / GIL Vicente 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.347 / def 0.895 | GIL Vicente attack 0.793 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Arouca (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027.
What competition is Arouca vs GIL Vicente part of?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 53% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Arouca and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Record (10 meetings): Arouca 4W | Draws 6 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in?
Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.35x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.79x) against Arouca's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.97
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.50
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Arouca and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Arouca and 0.91 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 15W 6D 17L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 11L across 38 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Arouca against 1.50 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 9D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or GIL Vicente away?
Arouca's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.56 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Arouca or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
6
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 56%, GIL Vicente 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Arouca and 50% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 39%; GIL Vicente in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Arouca's recent matches and 44% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Arouca's matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Arouca and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.