Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Korona Kielce travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Korona Kielce stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 0.70 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Korona Kielce and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Korona Kielce trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 47% versus Korona Kielce 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Korona Kielce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG and Korona Kielce 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.884 / defence 1.109 | Korona Kielce attack 0.844 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 56 games and Korona Kielce's last 55.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 31%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.67 | Draw 3.13 | Korona Kielce 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 / Korona Kielce 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.884 / def 1.109 | Korona Kielce attack 0.844 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Korona Kielce xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 37% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.88) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 56 games and Korona Kielce's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.13
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.37
1.12
Korona Kielce xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.12 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 14D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.15 PPG from 55 outings (15W 18D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.29 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 8W 8D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 10D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 14D 22L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 18D 22L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.19 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
4
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Korona Kielce 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 48% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Korona Kielce in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 63% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 48% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 63% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Korona Kielce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Korona Kielce 1-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG and Korona Kielce 1.12 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Korona Kielce attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 37% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 31%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Korona Kielce 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.