Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Cracovia Krakow versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Warta Poznań's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.10 for Warta Poznań. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Warta Poznań edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Warta Poznań — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Warta Poznań 32%). Note also that Warta Poznań surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Cracovia Krakow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.94 xG and Warta Poznań 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.434 / defence 1.095 | Warta Poznań attack 0.897 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.215. Cracovia Krakow carry an above-average attack rating of 1.434 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 56 games and Warta Poznań's last 56.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 21%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.89 | Draw 3.86 | Warta Poznań 4.71. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.94 / Warta Poznań 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.434 / def 1.095 | Warta Poznań attack 0.897 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Warta Poznań xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 53% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.43x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.90x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 56 games and Warta Poznań's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.86
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.13
1.19
Warta Poznań xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
3%
32.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.19 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 17W 21D 18L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 21L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.23 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 11W 10D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 21D 18L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Warta Poznań away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.54 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2024: Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 43%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cracovia Krakow) and 32% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 39%; Warta Poznań in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 32% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 68% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.94 xG and Warta Poznań 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.43 / defence 1.09 against Warta Poznań attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Warta Poznań win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 34%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.29 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.