Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Jagiellonia — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jagiellonia travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.80 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Jagiellonia have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2025, ended Zaglebie Lubin 3–1 Jagiellonia — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Jagiellonia have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 58% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 54% | Jagiellonia 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.63 xG and Jagiellonia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.286 / defence 0.959 | Jagiellonia attack 1.032 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.257. Zaglebie Lubin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.286 — their 1.63 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Jagiellonia bring a tight defence (rating 0.756, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Zaglebie Lubin's projected output down. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 49 games and Jagiellonia's last 48.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.23 | Draw 3.65 | Jagiellonia 3.61. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 80% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.63 / Jagiellonia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.286 / def 0.959 | Jagiellonia attack 1.032 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 30 November 2025 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 45% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (1.29) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 49 games and Jagiellonia's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.65
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.87
1.24
Jagiellonia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.24 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.83 PPG from 48 outings (25W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.73 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.50 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 58%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 50% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 75% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia finished level at 0-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.63 xG and Jagiellonia 1.24 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Jagiellonia attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.