Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Radomiaka in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 2–3 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Gornik Zabrze 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 66% | Gornik Zabrze 46%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Radomiak Radom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.191 / defence 0.831 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.877 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.260. Gornik Zabrze bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Radomiak Radom's projected output down. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 50 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 50.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.05 | Draw 3.29 | Gornik Zabrze 4.78. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.50 / Gornik Zabrze 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.191 / def 0.831 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.877 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 28 November 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom 4 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 49% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.19) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.88x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 50 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.29
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.92 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 12D 21L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 22W 11D 17L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.54 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 24 home games (11W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 6D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.40 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.67 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Radomiak Radom) and 42% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 42% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 67% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Gornik Zabrze 4-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 66%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.