Wisla Plock 0-4 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wisla Plock face Motor Lublin.

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Fixture Analysis

Wisla Plock welcome Motor Lublin to Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Motor Lublin — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Motor Lublin's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wisla Plock, 0 for Motor Lublin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Wisla Plock 1–1 Motor Lublin — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Motor Lublin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 32% | Motor Lublin 45%). Note also that Motor Lublin surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Wisla Plock recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.01 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.610 / defence 1.059 | Motor Lublin attack 1.047 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.091. Wisla Plock's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Wisla Plock's last 31 games and Motor Lublin's last 65.

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.48 | Draw 3.05 | Motor Lublin 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wisla Plock 30% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 70% (last 10 away games).

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