Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion Widzewa Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lechia Gdansk's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.30 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Lechia Gdansk 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 49% versus Lechia Gdansk 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 45% | Lechia Gdansk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.859 / defence 0.821 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.093 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.084. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Widzew Łódź games / 65 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Lechia Gdansk 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.53 / Lechia Gdansk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.859 / def 0.821 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.093 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lechia Gdansk xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 49% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 2 | Lechia Gdansk 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.49
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.51
0.97
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.97 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 21W 13D 31L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 22W 14D 29L from 65 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.57 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 69%.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 21W 13D 31L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 14D 29L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.59 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 41%, Lechia Gdansk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Widzew Łódź) and 72% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Widzew Łódź's games and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 72% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.09 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 45%, Lechia Gdansk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.