Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw host Gornik Zabrze at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's home record at Tarczyński Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 0.70 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Gornik Zabrze have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Slask Wroclaw.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Gornik Zabrze have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 53% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 47% | Gornik Zabrze 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.963 / defence 1.040 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.010 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.195. Data: 47 Slask Wroclaw games / 48 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Gornik Zabrze 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 70% | Gornik Zabrze 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.26 / Gornik Zabrze 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.963 / def 1.040 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.010 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (6 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 4W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.71
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.25 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 19W 15D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 20W 11D 16L from 47 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.53 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 5D 10L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 15D 13L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.65 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
1
Draws
7
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Gornik Zabrze 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Slask Wroclaw) and 56% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 65% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 47%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.53 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.