Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zaglebie Lubin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.60 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 44% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 52% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Raków Częstochowa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.78 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / defence 0.693 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.011 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.198. Raków Częstochowa have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling Zaglebie Lubin's projected output down. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 46 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 47.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.72 | Draw 3.81 | Zaglebie Lubin 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 14 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.78 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / def 0.693 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.011 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 5 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 14) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 58% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.10) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.01x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 46 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.81
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.62
0.84
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
3%
37.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.84 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 30W 8D 8L from 46 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 18L across 46 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 18W 4D 1L from their last 23 home games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across their last 23 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 games (2.13 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.52 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Zaglebie Lubin on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 35%, Zaglebie Lubin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Raków Częstochowa) and 61% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 74% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 5-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.78 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.69 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 16%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 52%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.