Slask Wroclaw 2-1 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Slask Wroclaw welcome ŁKS Łódź to Tarczyński Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's home record at Tarczyński Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tarczyński Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ŁKS Łódź stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź's away record: 0W 0D 7L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Slask Wroclaw carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ŁKS Łódź in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 62% versus ŁKS Łódź 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 54% | ŁKS Łódź 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 2.35 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.205 / defence 0.811 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.581 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.193. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Slask Wroclaw games / 13 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 76% | Draw 17% | ŁKS Łódź 6%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.32 | Draw 5.88 | ŁKS Łódź 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Slask Wroclaw (76%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 60% | ŁKS Łódź 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 76% | Draw 17% | ŁKS Łódź 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 40% | xG Slask Wroclaw 2.35 / ŁKS Łódź 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.205 / def 0.811 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.581 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.56
ŁKS Łódź xG
40%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 76% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 6% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against ŁKS Łódź's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, ŁKS Łódź's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 3-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
76%
1.31
17%
5.72
6%
16.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.92
0.56
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
16.56
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
9%
10.53
Win to Nil
44%
2.29
1%
174.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.56 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 8W 3D 2L from 13 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ŁKS Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 10L across 13 games — 0.54 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slask Wroclaw by 1.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ŁKS Łódź's away record stands at 0W 0D 6L across 6 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.54 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 games (2.08 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 2.17 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
0
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 1-2 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 67%, ŁKS Łódź 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Slask Wroclaw) and 50% (ŁKS Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 33% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slask Wroclaw's matches and 50% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Slask Wroclaw and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 2.35 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.56 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.21 / defence 0.81 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.58 / defence 1.31, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 76% | Draw 17% | ŁKS Łódź 6%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 54%, ŁKS Łódź 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.