Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 10 May 2025 at 20:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jagiellonia stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's (from Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Jagiellonia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Jagiellonia — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Jagiellonia 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Jagiellonia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.157 / defence 0.843 | Jagiellonia attack 0.911 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.239. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 65 games and Jagiellonia's last 65.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.84 | Draw 4.06 | Jagiellonia 4.75. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 60% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).

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