Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 44%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lech Poznan make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lech Poznan's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Lech Poznan have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 2–5 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 61% versus Lech Poznan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Lech Poznan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.41 xG and Lech Poznan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.945 / defence 0.836 | Lech Poznan attack 1.061 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.256. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 64 games and Lech Poznan's last 65.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.29 | Draw 3.72 | Lech Poznan 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 70% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.41 / Lech Poznan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.945 / def 0.836 | Lech Poznan attack 1.061 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lech Poznan xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.94) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.06x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 64 games and Lech Poznan's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.72
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.52
1.11
Lech Poznan xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.11 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 19D 15L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 33W 14D 17L from 64 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.77 for Lech Poznan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 9D 6L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 10W 10D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 30W 19D 15L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 33W 14D 17L in their last 64 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lech Poznan away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.84 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lech Poznan have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Lech Poznan 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Legia Warszawa) and 52% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 36%; Lech Poznan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 52% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 52% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 77% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.41 xG and Lech Poznan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Lech Poznan 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.