Radomiak Radom 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Radomiak Radom. A 0.50 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Radomiak Radom edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Radomiak Radom 2–3 Widzew Łódź — a Widzew Łódź win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Widzew Łódź 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 54% | Widzew Łódź 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.080 / defence 1.034 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.910 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.147. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 56 games and Widzew Łódź's last 56.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.65 | Draw 4.81 | Widzew Łódź 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Radomiak Radom 2.10 / Widzew Łódź 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.080 / def 1.034 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.910 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Widzew Łódź xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 61% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.08x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.91x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 56 games and Widzew Łódź's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.81
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.18
1.08
Widzew Łódź xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
43.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.08 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 17W 11D 28L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.29 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.14 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Widzew Łódź 0-3 Radomiak Radom on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Widzew Łódź 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Radomiak Radom, 75% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 57% (Widzew Łódź).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Radomiak Radom's games and 75% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 57% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 82% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 23, as Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.10 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.08 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 61% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 54%, Widzew Łódź 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.11 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.