Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 13:45 UK time.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Cracovia Krakow, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Radomiak Radom — Radomiak Radom have 1 win, with 0 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–2 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

The head-to-head data gives Cracovia Krakow an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 58% versus Radomiak Radom 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 44% | Radomiak Radom 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.111 / defence 1.135 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.146. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cracovia Krakow's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 57 games and Radomiak Radom's last 57.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.78 | Draw 4.69 | Radomiak Radom 4.42. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Cracovia Krakow 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 80% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 away games).

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