Radomiak Radom 1-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Radomiak Radom welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stal Mielec in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Stal Mielec and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 48% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 52% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Stal Mielec 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.101 / defence 1.036 | Stal Mielec attack 0.775 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Radomiak Radom games / 49 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 20%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Stal Mielec 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Stal Mielec 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.83 / Stal Mielec 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.101 / def 1.036 | Stal Mielec attack 0.775 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Stal Mielec xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 57% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.10x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.39
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.82
0.99
Stal Mielec xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
30.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.99 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 15W 9D 24L from 48 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 21L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.12 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 3W 5D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Stal Mielec away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.12 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 58%, Stal Mielec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 29% of games; Stal Mielec in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Radomiak Radom's games and 54% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Radomiak Radom 1-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Stal Mielec 0.99 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Stal Mielec attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 57% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 20%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Stal Mielec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 52%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.12 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.