Radomiak Radom 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka Radom plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Korona Kielce's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Korona Kielce edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 1–2 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 39% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Korona Kielce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.998 / defence 0.983 | Korona Kielce attack 0.971 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.102. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 45 games and Korona Kielce's last 44.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.22 | Draw 3.30 | Korona Kielce 4.07. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.49 / Korona Kielce 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.998 / def 0.983 | Korona Kielce attack 0.971 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 12) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.97x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 45 games and Korona Kielce's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.30
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.05 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 9D 19L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.16 PPG from 44 outings (13W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.16 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across their last 21 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 9D 19L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.24 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Korona Kielce 0-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 38%, Korona Kielce 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 57% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 67% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 57% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 76% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 12, as Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Korona Kielce 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.