Piast Gliwice 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 7D 1L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Piast Gliwice's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Piast Gliwice 0–0 Pogon Szczecin — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 27% | Pogon Szczecin 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Piast Gliwice surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Pogon Szczecin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / defence 0.966 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.244 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.140. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Piast Gliwice's projected output down. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 45 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 45.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.68 | Draw 3.31 | Pogon Szczecin 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.05 / Pogon Szczecin 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / def 0.966 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.244 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 12) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 27% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 45 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.31
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.37 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 16W 15D 14L from 45 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 13L across 45 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 8W 6D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 10W 5D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 9D 13L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.36 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 54%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 27% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 43%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 27%, Pogon Szczecin 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.