Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Puszcza Niepołomice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 1.20 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 73% and Raków Częstochowa 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Raków Częstochowa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.963 / defence 1.219 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.020 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.186. Data: 22 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 56 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 34%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 / Raków Częstochowa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.963 / def 1.219 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.020 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Raków Częstochowa xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 38% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.59
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.47 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 5W 7D 10L from 22 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 5L across 22 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 3W 5D 2L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.95 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.40 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Puszcza Niepołomice at 80%, Raków Częstochowa at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 70% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 90% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 70% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 34%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 54%, Raków Częstochowa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.