Pogon Szczecin 5-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 36%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.90 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Cracovia Krakow — a Cracovia Krakow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 41% versus Cracovia Krakow 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Cracovia Krakow 45%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.999 / defence 0.941 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 58 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 58.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.79 | Draw 3.58 | Cracovia Krakow 2.77. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pogon Szczecin 36% and Cracovia Krakow 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.18 / Cracovia Krakow 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.999 / def 0.941 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 5 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.06x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 58 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.58
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 28W 11D 19L from 58 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 17L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 17W 3D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across their last 28 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 11D 19L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 18W 23D 17L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.93 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 3 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Cracovia Krakow 1-5 Pogon Szczecin on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2026: Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 39%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 36% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 32%; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 36% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 71% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 5-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.64 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.