Motor Lublin 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Arena Lublin to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 2 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Motor Lublin (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's home record at Arena Lublin: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Motor Lublin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 56% versus Radomiak Radom 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 50% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.54 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.029 / defence 1.259 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.900 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.245. Data: 16 Motor Lublin games / 49 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 41% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 35%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Motor Lublin 50% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Monday 2 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 41% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Motor Lublin 1.54 / Radomiak Radom 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 1.029 / def 1.259 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.900 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Radomiak Radom xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 December 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom?
Motor Lublin 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.90x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.09
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.95
1.41
Radomiak Radom xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.41 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Motor Lublin come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 3D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (5W 1D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Motor Lublin's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Motor Lublin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 1D 10L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.57 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
2
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom?
From 4 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 57%, Radomiak Radom 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Motor Lublin) and 57% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin have failed to score in 29% of games; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Motor Lublin's games and 57% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 57% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Motor Lublin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.54 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 41% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 50%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.