Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec meet at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stal Mielec have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Stal Mielec have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Lechia Gdansk's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Stal Mielec and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 59% and Stal Mielec 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 48% | Stal Mielec 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.24 xG and Stal Mielec 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.656 / defence 1.060 | Stal Mielec attack 0.907 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.181. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Lechia Gdansk games / 61 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 39% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 34%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Stal Mielec 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Stal Mielec 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Monday 14 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 39% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.24 / Stal Mielec 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.656 / def 1.060 | Stal Mielec attack 0.907 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Stal Mielec xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 April 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 39% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
Record (5 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.66) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.91x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.60
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.38
1.14
Stal Mielec xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.14 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 6D 15L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 0.89 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 4W 2D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.04 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Stal Mielec away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.08 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 38%, Stal Mielec 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Lechia Gdansk) and 62% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 31% of games; Stal Mielec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 69% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 62% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Stal Mielec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Stal Mielec 3-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.24 xG and Stal Mielec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Stal Mielec attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 39% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 34%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.89 PPG, Stal Mielec 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.