Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Jagiellonia travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lechia Gdansk 1.80 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lechia Gdansk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jagiellonia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Jagiellonia, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Lechia Gdansk.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Jagiellonia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.159 / defence 1.179 | Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.175. Jagiellonia's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Lechia Gdansk games / 56 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Jagiellonia lead the H2H ledger, but Lechia Gdansk carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 70% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.32 / Jagiellonia 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.159 / def 1.179 | Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jagiellonia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Record (7 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 4W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.16) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
35%
2.90
29%
3.44
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Jagiellonia xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.36 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 12D 25L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.77 PPG from 56 outings (27W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 12W 5D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.54 points per game from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.70 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 27W 18D 11L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.46 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 61%, Jagiellonia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lechia Gdansk) and 46% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 61% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 46% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 3-0 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.